Is moderate conservatism in decline?

'Moderate Conservatism is a declining force in the Republican Party.' Discuss. 

Moderate conservatives within the Republican Party tend to lean towards the centre-right on many issues such as social policy by supporting gay marriage, women's right to an abortion and at times advocating comprehensive immigration reform, a more centrist stance is also evident on economic policy. Moderates are a dying breed within the GOP, which has become increasingly polarised in recent years due to the emergence of the Tea Party Movement which has moved the party further to the right. The fact two moderates, John McCain and Mitt Romney, failed to win in 2008 and 2012 respectively and faced heavy criticism from their party and that the 2016 race seems dominated by hardline conservatives, illustrates the fact moderates are indeed a declining force.

The 2008 and 2012 presidential elections illustrated the fact that moderate conservatism is a declining force within the Republican Party. John McCain was accused by the GOP for being too moderate according to his voting record and his 2008 plans, while campaigning, for a complete complete overhaul of the immigration system was criticised by the OGP for being a 'sneaky' attempt at granting amnesty to illegal immigrants. Similarly, Mitt Romney was also slammed by his own party as being a 'weak moderate candidate' handpicked by the 'mushy-middle' GOP. The very fact these two candidates faced a considerable amount of backlash from their own political party illustrates the fact that the GOP themselves are killing off moderates within their own path. However, the opposing view is that moderates are not in decline given the fact that the past two Republican candidates were moderates in the presidential election, showing that moderate views are not in decline. Other candidates who were backed by the Tea Party in 2012 such as Herman Cain, Michele Bachman or Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul from the Libertarian wing failed to make any significant gains shows that moderates remain the overall dominant wing of the party. However, this trend has reversed and it seems the GOP are unable to win a presidential election on moderate policies, and thus the 2016 presidential race seems to have squeezed moderates out of the competition and the hopeful candidates are hardline fiscal conservatives, some from the Tea Party such as Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, emphasising the fact moderate conservatism is in decline.

Looking at the current GOP members who have announced their intentions to run for the 2016 presidential race, there is not a single moderate candidate amongst them who stands a chance at becoming a nominee. The 'top' candidates running are mainly hardline fiscal or social (or both) conservatives such as Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee or Marco Rubio, who was very recently abandoned by the moderates in the GOP. The fact that the GOP presidential race is dominated by conservatives highlights the premise that moderates are in fact in decline. On the other hand, although Jeb Bush has not yet announced his candidacy, according to the New York Times he most likely will. A recent article by the New York Times has suggested that Bush would stand in a position to consolidate the moderate wing of the GOP. Moderates play a bigger role in the GOP primaries process than they do in Washington and it will take an incredibly strong candidate to defeat a moderate like Bush who has a huge advantage among moderates. The reason moderates appear in decline and under represented in Congress is because most come from Blue states and thus, lose in general elections but in the primary process it's a completely different story. 2012 and 2008 exit polls showed moderates represent about 40% of the vote in most blue state primaries - its important to note moderate therefore are very often state governors rather than members of Congress. Conservative opposition to Bush don't have it easy as the right of the party is crowded by candidates with broad and factional appeal like Cruz and Paul, and thus it's likely Bush will consolidate moderates in the party showing that moderates are not in decline. However, indeed Bush's candidacy may lead to a revival of moderate activism, but today the GOP is heavily dominated by fiscal conservatives from the Tea Party and moderates have virtually gone extinct.

The rise and dominance of the Tea Party Movement has consolidated fiscal sentiments within the GOP, thereby squeezing out the moderates. Moderates have further declined due to the Tea Party through Republican primaries in which moderates have been targeted. Moderates have been referred to as Republicans In Name Only (RINOs), plunging the GOP into a civil war in which moderates have specifically been targeted leading to several moderates casualties like Charlie Crist who lost to Marco Rubio, Senator Lisa Murkowski lost to a favourable Tea Party candidate Joe Miller and Bob Bennett from Utah was denied his fourth term by the Tea Party. As the Tea Party have gradually wiped out RINOs in the party the moderates have declined and fiscal sentiments have been enforced within the GOP which is perhaps most evident from the 2015 budget approved by the GOP dominated Congress. The budget itself is as fiscal as fiscal gets, introducing a balanced budget with $5.3 trillion in cuts making it easier to repeal Obamacare, demonstrating how fiscal conservatives dominate the party. Although the Tea Party have indeed won over many moderates, moderates have also put up a fight in the most recent primaries with critics and journalists arguing that the Tea Party lost the 2014 Republican primaries. North Carolina's House Speaker, Tom Tillis, a notable moderate, successfully beat several more conservative candidates than himself and he was also endorsed by Je Bush, Mitt Romney and the U.S Chamber of Commerce and American Crossroads who spent $2.6 million on Tillis. Other casualties were experienced by the Tea Party in Ohio and Indiana which illustrates that moderates remain active in the party. However, such victories are minor compared to the major losses endured by the moderates in previous elections which also highlights that at a time of increasing polarisation, moderates are no longer popular among the electorate.

Social conservatism is another powerful element within the GOP (often working in conjunction with fiscal conservatism) and with Congress now a GOP stronghold, social conservatives have become increasingly rampant on a range of social issues. This was seen recently in the House of Representatives by Republican attempts at pushing forward legislation instructing doctors performing late term abortions to take the best possible steps to ensure the survival of the foetus, which is all a part of wider GOP attempts to criminalise all abortions starting at the 20th week of pregnancy. The moderates, however, are no where to be seen as their influence against such measures are ineffective, emphasising how moderates are weak in the 114th Congress. However, as Bill O'Reilly from Fox News said recently, 'its a tough time for social conservatives in America' who are in the 'smear-zone', pointing to key figures like Scott Walker and Marco Rubio who have faced major backlash from the public for their tough stance on social issues. This is because social conservatives, as John McCain famously said, 'are agents of intolerance' in a time when societal attitudes towards issues like gay marriage are evolving. With key Republican figures like Jeb Bush endorsing same-sex marriage and the Supreme Court ruling in favour of it through U.S v Windsor, Hollingsworth v. Perry and the repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell, it is the social conservatives who have declined where as moderate views on social policy has become more largely accepted. However, the vast majority of the Republican Party remain in stark opposition to issues like gay marriage and continue to have a strict stance on social issues in spite of societal attitudes changing.

Finally, moderate conservatives believe in having fewer restrictions on legal immigration, tend to support comprehensive immigration reform and a path to citizenship. However, as demonstrated by Republican position to Democrat attempts at comprehensive immigration reform, moderate sentiments on immigration reform are declining. This was evident fem opposition to Obama's executive order in November 2014 which sought to aid five million illegal immigrants and previous Democrat efforts to reintroduce the DREAM Act. Clearly the GOP have adopted a hard and strict stance on immigration, which is also evident at state level. For instance, Republican Arizona passed SB 1070 into law which is today known for being the strictest anti-immigration bill giving law enforcement more powers to check people's immigration status with 'reasonable suspicion' and a range of other measures. However, perhaps at national level the moderates have indeed gone extinct but at state level they're still very active, which was evident earlier this year in the Texas legislature when attempts were made to restrict immigration heavily (such as by limiting sanctuary cities). However, the bills were met with gridlock in the Texas House and Senate following heavy opposition from moderates. Moreover, moderates were also seen to be active in Washington recently after John House Speaker John Boehner (who's been criticised for being too moderate) along with dozens other Republicans and Democrats attempted to pass a 3 week extension bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security, allowing for Obama's executive order to proceed. Although the bill failed and a shorter one-week extension was passed instead, this bill gained a lot of media attention and it highlighted how moderates remain active within the GOP. Although they may remain active on certain issues, the moderates have virtually gone extinct and are no longer as influential as they used to be.

As demonstrated above, the Republican Party have crushed their moderate wing in recent years through primaries and increasing polarisation which has shifted the party further to the right. Moderates within the GOP are no longer active at national level in Washington but are more popular at state level and it will someone like Jeb Bush to reconsolidate the moderate wing of the party.